51-factor NFL projection model

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AFI Performance — 2026 Week 4
Weekly results and Season to Date. Every eligible stored projection counts.
This Week
Straight-Up 10–6 62.5%
ATS 11–4–1 73.3%
O/U 8–5 61.5%
Season to Date
Straight-Up 41–23 64.1%
ATS 37–25–2 59.7%
O/U 28–32 46.7%
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Public AFI Record

Every eligible projection. Publicly graded.

AFI reports Straight-Up, Against the Spread and Over/Under results from legitimate stored pre-lock or pre-kickoff snapshots. Losses count. Pushes are shown separately. Missing historical snapshots are never recreated after the fact.

Transparent record · No cherry-picking
2026 Regular Season — Season to Date
The primary public AFI record. Updated as eligible regular-season games are completed and graded.
Straight-Up
41–23 · 64.1%
64 eligible graded projections
ATS
37–25–2 · 59.7%
64 eligible graded projections · 2 pushes
O/U
28–32 · 46.7%
60 eligible graded projections
Historical Results
2026 Preseason Results
Preserved for transparency, but kept separate from the regular-season record.
Straight-Up
17–14 · 54.8%
ATS
7–5 · 58.3%
O/U
6–5 · 54.5%
AFI Transparency

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AFI is more than a final percentage. Explore some of the actual personnel evidence and data coverage behind the matchup model.

This Week's Free Pick · Factor #3

Offensive Line Continuity

See the actual offensive linemen, comparable depth-chart observations, continuity scores and official AFI factor edge behind this week's Free Pick.

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Why AFI Calls Them Projections

AFI Projections, Not Guesses or Gut Feelings.

Every AFI projection is calculated from available football data and AFI’s 51-factor model — with the factor-by-factor reasoning available to see.

How AFI Is Built

Site built with AI assistance. Game projections driven by NFL football data.

Where AI fits inAI has been used as a development tool in building AFI — helping design, code, test and refine the platform and its analytical systems.

Where the projections come fromWeekly AFI projections are produced by AFI's programmed 51-factor model using imported football data. The model evaluates the available evidence, applies the defined factor logic and weights, and stores the resulting projection and factor-by-factor explanation.

51calculated matchup factors
Up to 16weekly NFL matchups
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1.46M+performance records from 2,825 players since 2023
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These completed examples show AFI projections that correctly identified the straight-up winner. Open any game to see the projection layout, probability, model details and the complete 51-factor “Show Me Why” analysis.

Regular Season · Week 4 · 2026
Completed Example 1 Regular Season Week 4
Atlanta Falcons
ATL
@
New Orleans Saints
NO
FINAL: ATL 45 - NO 24 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Atlanta Falcons
51.8% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Atlanta Falcons
Projected Score 27.9 - 20.4
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Atlanta Falcons -0.180 Offensive-line continuity evidence favors the away team. Away normalized score: 100; home normalized score: 80.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Atlanta Falcons -0.120 The away offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 49.7% versus 39.6%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense New Orleans Saints 0.036 The home defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 43.1% of red-zone possessions versus 46.1% allowed by the away defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Atlanta Falcons -0.150 Away team has a rest advantage: 11 days since its previous game versus 8 days for the home team.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance New Orleans Saints 0.026 The away team has the greater travel burden: 424 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change New Orleans Saints 0.030 The away team crosses 1 time zone(s), compared with 0 for the home team.
27 Consecutive Road Games New Orleans Saints 0.030 The away team is playing its 2nd consecutive road game, creating a greater road-schedule burden than the home team.
28 Home Field Advantage New Orleans Saints 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor temperature does not materially affect play.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor wind does not materially affect play.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor precipitation does not materially affect play.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 3 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. The game is protected from normal outdoor weather effects, so roof status is neutral between the two teams.
34 Head Coach Atlanta Falcons -0.150 The away head coach, Kevin Stefanski, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Kellen Moore.
35 Coaching Continuity New Orleans Saints 0.030 Kellen Moore is in Year 2 - Developing Continuity with the home team, compared with Kevin Stefanski in Year 1 - New Staff with the away team. The home team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Daniel Carlson and Nick Folk as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Ryan Wright and Jake Bailey as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread New Orleans Saints 0.050 The current market spread is -2.5 from the home-team perspective, making the home team a 2.5-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of +1.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.0 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form Atlanta Falcons -0.060 The away team has the stronger recent-form profile. Away recent record: 3-2, recency-weighted margin 0.6, form score 0.5. Home recent record: 2-3, recency-weighted margin -3.9, form score -2.0. Factor #40 favors the away team.
41 Strength of Schedule Neutral 0.000 The teams have faced similarly difficult schedules. Home opponent win percentage is 0.475 and away opponent win percentage is 0.466. The difference is not large enough to create a Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar quarterback-continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 55.0% and away continuity score is 55.0%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #46 advantage. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team. Both teams show a recent quarterback change.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar defensive-lineup continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 84.1% and away continuity score is 86.7%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #47 advantage. The home team retains 6 of 8 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 6 of 8. Recent defensive starter changes: home 2, away 2.
48 Returning Starters New Orleans Saints 0.040 The home team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Home returning-starter rate is 59.3% versus 48.2% for the away team. The home team returns 16 of 27 established starters, while the away team returns 13 of 27. Factor #48 favors the home team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
Completed Example 2 Regular Season Week 4
Denver Broncos
DEN
@
San Francisco 49ers
SF
FINAL: DEN 14 - SF 24 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
San Francisco 49ers
52.3% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up San Francisco 49ers
Projected Score 20.4 - 30.4
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Denver Broncos -0.180 Offensive-line continuity evidence favors the away team. Away normalized score: 100; home normalized score: 80.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense San Francisco 49ers 0.115 The home offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 56.9% versus 47.3%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Denver Broncos -0.117 The away defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 38.5% of red-zone possessions versus 48.2% allowed by the home defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days San Francisco 49ers 0.050 Home team has a rest advantage: 7 days since its previous game versus 6 days for the away team.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance San Francisco 49ers 0.056 The away team has the greater travel burden: 928 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change San Francisco 49ers 0.030 The away team crosses 1 time zone(s), compared with 0 for the home team.
27 Consecutive Road Games Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing its second or later consecutive road game.
28 Home Field Advantage San Francisco 49ers 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Temperature data is not available yet.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Wind data is not available yet.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Precipitation data is not available yet.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 40 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Outdoor venue. The game is exposed to weather, with any temperature, wind or precipitation impact evaluated by the corresponding environment factors.
34 Head Coach Denver Broncos -0.050 The away head coach, Sean Payton, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Kyle Shanahan.
35 Coaching Continuity San Francisco 49ers 0.060 Kyle Shanahan is in Year 10 - Elite Long-Term Continuity with the home team, compared with Sean Payton in Year 4 - Established Continuity with the away team. The home team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Eddy Pineiro and Wil Lutz as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Corliss Waitman and Jeremy Crawshaw as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread San Francisco 49ers 0.100 The current market spread is -3.0 from the home-team perspective, making the home team a 3.0-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of +2.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.0 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form San Francisco 49ers 0.180 The home team has the stronger recent-form profile. Home recent record: 5-0, recency-weighted margin 15.1, form score 9.0. Away recent record: 3-2, recency-weighted margin 1.0, form score 3.0. Factor #40 favors the home team.
41 Strength of Schedule Neutral 0.000 The teams have faced similarly difficult schedules. Home opponent win percentage is 0.500 and away opponent win percentage is 0.496. The difference is not large enough to create a Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity San Francisco 49ers 0.250 The home team has the stronger quarterback-continuity profile. Home continuity score is 100.0% versus 33.3% for the away team. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 3 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team. The away team shows a recent quarterback change. Factor #46 favors the home team.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar defensive-lineup continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 94.7% and away continuity score is 93.3%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #47 advantage. The home team retains 9 of 10 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 7 of 8. Recent defensive starter changes: home 1, away 1.
48 Returning Starters Denver Broncos -0.080 The away team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Away returning-starter rate is 77.8% versus 54.8% for the home team. The home team returns 17 of 31 established starters, while the away team returns 21 of 27. Factor #48 favors the away team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
Completed Example 3 Regular Season Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers
LAC
@
Seattle Seahawks
SEA
FINAL: LAC 23 - SEA 30 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Seattle Seahawks
54.0% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Seattle Seahawks
Projected Score 17.8 - 26.8
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Seattle Seahawks 0.180 Offensive-line continuity evidence favors the home team. Home normalized score: 80; away normalized score: 60.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Seattle Seahawks 0.045 The home offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 44.6% versus 40.9%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Los Angeles Chargers -0.123 The away defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 35.8% of red-zone possessions versus 46% allowed by the home defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Neutral 0.000 Both teams have the same number of rest days: 7.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Seattle Seahawks 0.058 The away team has the greater travel burden: 965 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Neutral 0.000 Neither team has a relative time-zone travel advantage.
27 Consecutive Road Games Seattle Seahawks 0.030 The away team is playing its 2nd consecutive road game, creating a greater road-schedule burden than the home team.
28 Home Field Advantage Seattle Seahawks 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Temperature data is not available yet.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Wind data is not available yet.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Precipitation data is not available yet.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 20 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Outdoor venue. The game is exposed to weather, with any temperature, wind or precipitation impact evaluated by the corresponding environment factors.
34 Head Coach Seattle Seahawks 0.050 The home head coach, Mike Macdonald, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Jim Harbaugh.
35 Coaching Continuity Neutral 0.000 Mike Macdonald is in Year 3 - Established Continuity with the home team and Jim Harbaugh is in Year 3 - Established Continuity with the away team. Their current-team coaching continuity is similar enough that AFI assigns no advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Jason Myers and Cameron Dicker as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Michael Dickson and J.K. Scott as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Seattle Seahawks 0.200 The current market spread is -7.0 from the home-team perspective, making the home team a 7.0-point favorite. AFI converts that market expectation into a raw Point Spread score of +4.0.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 The point spread moved only 0.0 point(s) from the opening line, which is not large enough to create a meaningful Line Movement advantage.
40 Recent Team Form Seattle Seahawks 0.180 The home team has the stronger recent-form profile. Home recent record: 2-2-1, recency-weighted margin 6.1, form score 1.6. Away recent record: 0-5, recency-weighted margin -10.9, form score -8.2. Factor #40 favors the home team.
41 Strength of Schedule Neutral 0.000 The teams have faced similarly difficult schedules. Home opponent win percentage is 0.487 and away opponent win percentage is 0.498. The difference is not large enough to create a Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar quarterback-continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 33.3% and away continuity score is 33.3%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #46 advantage. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team. Both teams show a recent quarterback change.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Seattle Seahawks 0.040 The home team has the stronger defensive-lineup continuity profile. Home continuity score is 100.0% versus 93.3% for the away team. The home team retains 8 of 8 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 7 of 8. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 1. Factor #47 favors the home team.
48 Returning Starters Seattle Seahawks 0.080 The home team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Home returning-starter rate is 80.8% versus 65.4% for the away team. The home team returns 21 of 26 established starters, while the away team returns 17 of 26. Factor #48 favors the home team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
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